Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mihaela Simionescu Author-Workplace-Name: Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy Title: Bayesian combined forecasts and Monte Carlo simulations to improve inflation rate predictions in Romania Publication-Status: Published Abstract: In this paper we applied the regression approach and Bayesian inference to obtain more accurate forecasts of the inflation rate in the case of the Romanian economy. The necessity of using the most accurate forecasts for the inflation rate is required by the realisation of economic criteria for the accession to the eurozone and by the inflation targeting strategy of the National Bank of Romania. Considering the assumption that simple econometric models provide better forecasts than complex models, in this paper we combined various forecasts from individual models using as prior information the expectations of experts. The empirical findings for Romanian inflation rate forecasts over the horizon of 2016-2018 indicated that a fixed effects model performed better than other simple models (autoregressive moving average model, dynamic model, simple and multiple linear model, VAR, Bayesian VAR, simultaneous equations model). The Bayesian combined forecasts that used experts’ predictions as priors, with a shrinkage parameter tending to infinity, improved the accuracy of all predictions using individual models, outperforming also naïve forecasts and zero and equal weights forecasts. However, predictions based on Monte Carlo simulation outperformed all the scenarios in terms of the mean error and mean absolute error.   Keywords: forecasts accuracy; Bayesian forecasts combination; shrinkage parameter; econometric model Journal: Research Papers in Economics and Finance Pages: 7-20 Volume: 4 Issue: 1 Year: 2020 Month: March DOI: 10.18559/ref.2020.1.1 File-URL: https://journals.ue.poznan.pl/REF/article/view/91 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://journals.ue.poznan.pl/REF/article/download/91/44 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:jbl:ref000:v:4:y:2020:i:1:id:91 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Piotr Lis Author-Workplace-Name: Poznan University of Economics and Business, Poland Title: Preface Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Dear Readers, We are pleased to present the next issue of the Research Papers in Economics and Finance published by the University of Economics and Business in Poznan, Poland. We have selected five articles from different parts of Europe. This issue opens with a great paper, which received three excellent reviews, written by Mihaela Simionescu from the Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy entitled “Bayesian combined forecasts and Monte Carlo simulations to improve inflation rate predictions in Romania”. The author has proved, using empirical data for Romania, that the Bayesian combined forecasts using experts’ predictions as priors, when the shrinkage parameter tends to infinity, improved the accuracy of the predictions based on individual models. The second paper entitled “Risk management system references in construction” has been written by four authors: Volodymyr Tkachenko, Maryna Klymchuk, Tetiana Ilina from Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture and Iryna Tkachenko from the Academy of the State Penitentiary Service in Kyiv, Ukraine. In this paper the authors examine the basic methods of risk management in construction: avoidance of risk, localisation, dissipation and compensation. Formalised functional structuring of risk management in construction was proposed, allowing for the implementation of management functions at two levels – executive and coordinating, with the help of a special structural component in the enterprise management system or a specialised unit in the organisational structure. The next paper concerns “Information demand of foreign labour market from the point of view of Chinese students”. This paper has been written by Anna Pilarczyk and Tomasz Naprawski from the University of Szczecin, Poland. The authors have used the companies’ and students’ surveys which identified the main problems facing employers (like a small number of applicants or lack of expertise and experience) and foreign employees (like organisational problems or formal requirements in a foreign country) during the job application process. The proposed information-logistics engine was designed as a core for the software architecture of target-oriented application, in which the user requirements are not clear but have the highest priority. The fourth paper has been created by Joanna Ratajczak from the University of Economics and Business in Poznan, Poland, and concerns “Recruitment and motivation of Generation Z in the face of the employee's market”. The study involved 390 students in Leszno, Poland. The author has proved that despite the low level of unemployment and the problem of finding people willing to work in Leszno in 2018, employers did not fully respond to the expectations of young people. The employee market in the opinion of the employees themselves, especially in smaller towns, where a low unemployment rate is observed, does not translate into improved employment conditions. The last paper entitled “Statutory regulations and corporate governance standards in cooperative banks” has been written by Mikołaj Jalinik from Bialystok University of Technology, Poland and Krzysztof Łukaszuk from the Cooperative Bank in Bielsk Podlaski, Poland. According to the authors’ research, although the regulations of the European Parliament duplicate the solutions already existing on the domestic legal grounds in some areas, they are part of the general policy and practice of developing financial sector regulations, unifying requirements for financial institutions and raising standards in the area of corporate governance. In the case of cooperative banks, doubts arise as to whether, being entities different from commercial banks, implementing solutions (including those of the European Parliament) under pressure from the regulator, the results obtained will prove to be adequate to the specificity of the entities covered by it. Yours faithfully, dr hab. Piotr Lis, prof. UEP - Editor in Chief Keywords: Research Papers in Economics and Finance; Department of Business Activity and Economic Policy; Poznań University of Economics and Business; Poznan; Poland Journal: Research Papers in Economics and Finance Pages: 5-6 Volume: 4 Issue: 1 Year: 2020 Month: March DOI: 10.18559/ref.2020.1.0 File-URL: https://journals.ue.poznan.pl/REF/article/view/97 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://journals.ue.poznan.pl/REF/article/download/97/49 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:jbl:ref000:v:4:y:2020:i:1:id:97 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Volodymyr Tkachenko Author-Workplace-Name: Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, Ukraine Author-Name: Maryna Klymchuk Author-Workplace-Name: Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, Ukraine Author-Name: Iryna Tkachenko Author-Workplace-Name: Academy of the State Penitentiary Service Author-Name: Tetiana Ilina Author-Workplace-Name: Kyiv National University of Construction and Architecture, Ukraine Title: Risk management system references in construction Publication-Status: Published Abstract: The article examines the basic methods of risk management in construction: risk aversion, localization, dissipation,compensation. The methods are adapted to the specificity of construction companies, taking into account the main directions of their development. For the purpose of effective risk management, formalized functional structuring of risk management in construction is proposed, which will enable the implementation of management functions at two levels – executive and coordinating, with the help of a special structural component in the enterprise management system or a specialized unit in the organizational structure.  Keywords: construction; risk management; dissipation; localization; risk aversion Journal: Research Papers in Economics and Finance Pages: 21-29 Volume: 4 Issue: 1 Year: 2020 Month: March DOI: 10.18559/ref.2020.1.2 File-URL: https://journals.ue.poznan.pl/REF/article/view/93 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://journals.ue.poznan.pl/REF/article/download/93/45 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:jbl:ref000:v:4:y:2020:i:1:id:93 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anna Pilarczyk Author-Workplace-Name: University of Szczecin Author-Name: Tomasz Naprawski Author-Workplace-Name: University of Szczecin Title: Information demand of foreign labor market from the point of view of Chinese students Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Today people are faced with a huge amount of information. Demand-oriented management of information can resolve this issue. Therefore, the measures that filter this information are the desired solution.  One of these measures is information demand analysis, which can be easily used for defining problems on the labour market, where the term of talent import is becoming increasingly important. The main contribution of this study is the analysis of the challenges facing the foreign labour market from the point of view of an employee and an employer and a proposal of an information demand model for strengthening the foreign labour market information system. The information demand model is one of the stages of the development of an information-logistics engine, which ensures that the right information is available in the right location, time and quality. Keywords: information-logistics engine; information demand analysis; information demand model; foreign labour market; demand-oriented management of information Journal: Research Papers in Economics and Finance Pages: 31-35 Volume: 4 Issue: 1 Year: 2020 Month: March DOI: 10.18559/ref.2020.1.3 File-URL: https://journals.ue.poznan.pl/REF/article/view/94 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://journals.ue.poznan.pl/REF/article/download/94/46 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:jbl:ref000:v:4:y:2020:i:1:id:94 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Joanna Ratajczak Author-Workplace-Name: Poznan University of Economics and Business, Poland Title: Recruitment and motivation of Generation Z in the face of the employee’s market Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Contemporary demographic changes in the labour market pose many challenges. One of them is the need to reconcile the needs of employees from different generations. The youngest generation on the labour market – Generation Z – has very specific expectations, which are discussed in the paper. At the same time, the article describes the labour market in a poviat town on the example of Leszno. As it turned out, contrary to popular opinion, despite the low level of unemployment and the difficulty in finding employees in many industries, there is no employee market in Leszno. Employers do not respond to the expectations of job candidates, especially the youngest ones, which in turn leads to their travelling to other, larger cities. In this way Leszno is depopulating. A similar situation occurs in other small poviat towns. The article proposes one solution to this problem, which is one of the research purposes. The second purpose is recognision of Generation Z’s expectations towards their future employers. The outcomes are described in the article. Keywords: employees’ market; Generation Z; age management; Leszno; Poland Journal: Research Papers in Economics and Finance Pages: 37-50 Volume: 4 Issue: 1 Year: 2020 Month: March DOI: 10.18559/ref.2020.1.4 File-URL: https://journals.ue.poznan.pl/REF/article/view/95 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://journals.ue.poznan.pl/REF/article/download/95/47 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:jbl:ref000:v:4:y:2020:i:1:id:95 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mikołaj Jalinik Author-Workplace-Name: Bialystok University of Technology, Poland Author-Name: Krzysztof Łukaszuk Author-Workplace-Name: Cooperative Bank in Bielsk Podlaski, Poland Title: Statutory regulations and corporate governance standards in cooperative banks Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Eleven years after the last financial crisis, many banks are still working out their organisational backlogs and severe financial losses. Apart from the expansionary monetary policy and faulty financial inno- vations, the lack of proper supervision of the financial sector is considered one of the main sources of the global economic crisis. The expectations of shareholders led banks to take more courageous risks, more leverage and more speculation. Ownership supervision failed as a result, as virtually no bank was prepared for the imminent catastrophe. To prevent a similar scenario in the future, reforms in the financial sector were considered necessary, and above all the strengthening of corporate governance was considered necessary. Although the co-operative banks operating in Poland are small entities with a local character, they have also to some extent been affected by the global crisis. This has been delayed, and on a somewhat smaller scale, but has worsened the performance of many banks. Given numerous proposals for additional corporate governance regulations, in addition to the existing national laws and codes of good practice, regulations were implemented at the European level, and the national supervisor, the Polish Financial Supervision Authority, introduced additional guidelines - corporate governance rules. Keywords: corporate governance; organisational structure; cooperative bank; management; Poland Journal: Research Papers in Economics and Finance Pages: 51-58 Volume: 4 Issue: 1 Year: 2020 Month: March DOI: 10.18559/ref.2020.1.5 File-URL: https://journals.ue.poznan.pl/REF/article/view/96 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://journals.ue.poznan.pl/REF/article/download/96/48 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:jbl:ref000:v:4:y:2020:i:1:id:96