Les déficits jumeaux au Sénégal : Evaluation empirique et caractérisation
Mots-clés :
déficits jumeaux, déficit budgétaire, déficit courant, cointégration, causalitéRésumé
Depuis 1960, année de l'indépendance nationale, le compte courant et le budget de l'Etat du Sénégal connaissent des déficits, bien que différentes réformes budgétaires, commerciales et monétaires aient été entreprises pour les enrayer. A la lumiere de la théorie des déficits jumeaux, nous avons pu établir l'existence d'une corrélation entre les déficits budgétaire et courant du Sénégal, en utilisant la technique de cointégration de Johansen, sur la période allant de 1974 a 2014. Ensuite, a partir des tests de causalité de Granger nous avons pu mettre en évidence une causalité bidirectionnelle entre ces déficits jumeaux d'une part et une causalité unidirectionnelle allant dans le sens du PIB vers ces memes déficits jumeaux d'autre part. Certes, le Sénégal constitue un cas de déficits jumeaux mais ces derniers trouvent leurs origines aussi dans les structures de cette petite économie dépendante qu'est le Sénégal.
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