Intégration économique et synchronisation des cycles de croissance dans la zone UEMOA : Une approche en panel dynamique
Mots-clés :
synchronisation des cycles, intégration économique, panel dynamique, GMM, UEMOARésumé
L ' objectif de cet article est de savoir de quelle manière évolue le degré de synchronisation des cycles de croissance réelle dans l ' UEMOA et dans quelles mesures l ' intégration économique impacte-t-elle cette synchronisation. Pour répondre à ces questions nous avons proposé une nouvelle approche de mesure du degré de synchronisation multilatérale des cycles économiques, et nous avons estimé un modèle de type panel dynamique par la méthode des moments généralisés conditionnels en deux étapes proposés par Arellano et Bond (1991), Bover et Blundell (1998). Nos analyses ont montré que les interrelations entre les économies de l ' UEMOA en termes d ' échanges commerciaux sont très limitées. Néanmoins, la synchronisation bilatérale de cycles, bien que faible, évolue depuis 2006. D ' après nos estimations, en somme, nous pouvons dire que les résultats obtenus suggèrent que les déterminants clés de la synchronisation des cycles de croissance économique dans l ' UEMOA sont le degré de la synchronisation de la période antérieure, les différences.
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