Effets du changement climatique sur la sécurité alimentaire en Afrique subsaharienne : Une analyse par zone d’intégration économique
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.18559/rielf.2025.1.2299Mots-clés :
changement climatique, sécurité alimentaire, modèles AMG, ASS, CCEMGRésumé
Objectif : Cet article a pour objectif d’évaluer les effets du changement climatique sur la sécurité alimentaire en Afrique subsaharienne (ASS), et en son sein les zones d’intégration économique (CEDEAO, CEEAC, SADC).
Conception/méthodologie/approche : Le modèle AMG est utilisé à cet effet puisqu’il prend en compte la dynamique à long terme, avec les estimateurs MG et CCEMG sur données de panels pour 30 pays d’ASS couvrant la période 1990–2023.
Résultats : Les résultats montrent que la température et les précipitations ont respectivement des effets négatifs et positifs significatif sur la disponibilité et l’accessibilité des denrées alimentaires, mais non sur l’utilisation alimentaire en ASS à long terme. L’analyse par zone d’intégration révèle que les effets néfastes de la température sur la disponibilité sont plus importants dans la SADC que dans la CEEAC et de la CEDEAO. Par contre, les effets bénéfiques des chutes de pluie sur la disponibilité sont plus notables dans la CEEAC que
dans la CEDEAO et la SADC. Les effets néfastes de la température et les effets bénéfiques sur l’accessibilité sont plus importants dans la zone CEEAC que dans les zones CEDEAO et SADC.
Originalité/valeur : L’originalité de ce travail réside dans le fait de montré la disparité qui existe entre les différentes zones d’intégration économique. L’article suggéré que les autorités doivent mettre en place des méthodes appropriées d’adaptation au changement
climatique pour améliorer la sécurité alimentaire.
JEL Classification
Agriculture (Q1)
General (Q10)
Climate • Natural Disasters and Their Management • Global Warming (Q54)
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