Régimes de change et performances économiques en Afrique : Quelles leçons pour les pays de l'UEMOA?
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.18559/rielf.2017.1.2Mots-clés :
régimes de change, inflation, croissance économique, politique monétaire, Afrique, UEMOARésumé
L'objectif de cet article est d'évaluer l'influence du régime de change sur les performances macroéconomiques afin d'en tirer des leçons pour les pays de l'UEMOA où la politique de change fi xe caractérise le régime monétaire. Pour cela, une estimation en données de panel à l'aide de la méthode des moments généralisés (GMM) en système a été adoptée et effectuée sur 32 pays pour évaluer l'impact du régime de change sur les performances macroéconomiques pendant la période 1980-2010. Les résultats montrent que le régime de change fixe est meilleur que les régimes de change flexible et intermédiaire pour maintenir des taux d'inflation faibles et stables grâce à un effet de discipline plutôt qu'à un effet de crédibilité. En outre, la croissance dans les pays en régime de change fi xe est plus faible que celle dans l'ensemble des pays en régime de change plus souple. Spécifiquement, ces pays en régime de change fixe semblent enregistrer des taux de croissance plus faibles que les pays en régime de change intermédiaire. Quant au coefficient associé au régime de change flexible, il est positif et significatif. Il traduit que les pays en régime de change fl exible pourraient avoir des taux de croissance plus élevés que les pays en régime de change intermédiaire. L'implication à tirer pour les pays de l'UEMOA est que la recherche d'un point d'ancrage nominal domestique permettrait le maintien de l'inflation à des niveaux faibles et stables tout en améliorant les performances de croissance.
Téléchargements
Références
Adedeji, O., Ghazanchyan, M., Maehle, N., Stotsky, J.G., 2012, The Relationship between the Foreign Exchange Regimes and Macroeconomic Performance, IMF Working Paper 12/148.
View in Google Scholar
Aghion, P., Bachetta, P., Ranciere, R. Rogoff, K., 2009, Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of the Financial Development, Journal of Monetary Economics, 56, pp. 494-513.
View in Google Scholar
Aloui ,C., Sassi, H., 2005, Régime de Change et Croissance Economique : Une Investigation Empirique, Economie Internationale, no. 4, 104, pp. 97–134.
View in Google Scholar
Allegret J.P., 2007, Quels Régimes de Change pour les Marchés Emergents ? Les Solutions de Coins en Questions, PANOECONOMICUS, Nº 4, pp. 397–427.
View in Google Scholar
Anderson, H., Habermeier, K., Kokenyne, A., Veyrune, R., 2009, Revised System for the Classification of Exchange Rate Arrangements, IMF/WP/09/211.
View in Google Scholar
Arellano, M. Bond, S.,1991, Some Tests Specification for Panel Data : Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations, Review of Economic Studies, no. 58, pp. 277–298.
View in Google Scholar
Bailliu, J., Lafrance, R., Perrault, J-F., 2003, Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?, International Finance, no. 6 : 3, pp. 381–414.
View in Google Scholar
Bhanumurthy, N.R., Mohanty, B., 2014, Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation: Evidence from India, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy, Working Paper, no. 130.
View in Google Scholar
Blundell, R., Bond, S.,1998, Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Model, Journal of Econometrics, no. 87, pp. 115–143.
View in Google Scholar
Bond, S., 2002, Dynamic Panel Data Model: A Guide to Micro Data Method and Practice, The Institute For Fiscal Studies, Cemmap Working Paper, CWP09/02.
View in Google Scholar
Caglayan, M., Torres, R.I.M., 2011, The Effect of the Exchange Rates on Investment in Mexican Manufacturing Industry, Open Econ Rev, no. 22, pp. 669–683.
View in Google Scholar
Capraru, B. Ihnatov, I., 2012, Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Growth in Central and Eastern European Countries, Procedia Economics and Finance, no. 3, pp. 18–23.
View in Google Scholar
Chang, R., Velasco, A., 2000, Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime, Journal of Economic Theory, no. 92, pp. 1–34.
View in Google Scholar
Coudert, V., Dubert, M., 2005, Does Exchange Rate Regime Explain Differences in Economic Results for Asian Countries?, Journal of Asian Economics, no. 16, pp. 874–895.
View in Google Scholar
De Grauwe, P., Schnabl, G., 2008, Exchange Rate Stability, Inflation, and Growth in (South) Eastern and Central Europe, Review of Development Economics, no. 12(3), pp. 530–549.
View in Google Scholar
De Vita, G., Kyaw, K.S., 2011, Does the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime Affect the Economic Growth of Developing Countries ?, Journal of Developing Areas, no. 45 (1), pp. 135–153.
View in Google Scholar
Diaw, A., Ka, B., 2012, Régime de change et Croissance économique : le cas des pays de la CEDEAO, Conférence Economique Africaine, Kigali, Rwanda, 30 octobre au 02 novembre.
View in Google Scholar
Dubas, J.M., Lee, B-J., Mark, N.C., 2010, A Multinomial Logit Approach to Exchange Rate Policy Classification with an Application to Growth, Journal of International Money and Finance, no. 29, pp. 1438–1462.
View in Google Scholar
Dufrénot, G., Ehrhart, H., 2015, The ECOWAS Countries’ Growth Rates: What Makes Them Similar and What Makes Them Different? A Quantile Regression Analysis, Canadian Journal of Development Studies, vol. 36, no. 3, pp. 345–365.
View in Google Scholar
Edwards, S., Levy-Yeyati, E., 2005, Flexible Exchange Rates as Shock Absorbers, European Economic Review, no. 49, pp. 2079–2105.
View in Google Scholar
Fleming, M., 1962, Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and under Floating Exchange Rates, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 369–380.
View in Google Scholar
FMI, 2009, 2010, Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions, Internetional Monetary Fund, www.imt.org.
View in Google Scholar
Friedman, M., 1953, Essays in Positive Economics, University of Chicago Press.
View in Google Scholar
Genberg, H., Swoboda, A.K., 2005, Exchange Rate Regimes: Does what Countries Say Matter?, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 52, IMF Conference in Honor of Michael Mussa, pp. 129–141.
View in Google Scholar
Ghazanchyan, M, Stotsky, J.G., Zhang, Q., 2015, A New Look at the Determinants of Growth in Asian Countries, International Monetary Fund, WP/15/195.
View in Google Scholar
Ghosh, A., 2014, How do Openness and Exchange-Rate Regimes Affect Inflation?, International Review of Economics and Finance, no. 34, pp. 190–202.
View in Google Scholar
Ghosh, A., Gulde, A., Ostry, J., Wolf, H., 1997, Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter?, NBER, Working Paper, no. 5874.
View in Google Scholar
Ghosh, A., Ostry, J., Tsangarides, C.G., 2010), Exchange Rate Regime and the Stability of the International Monetary System, IMF, Occasional Paper, no. 270.
View in Google Scholar
Ghosh, A., Qureshi, M.S., Tsangarides, C.G., 2014, On the Value of Words: Inflation and Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes, IMF Economic Review, vol. 62, no. 2.
View in Google Scholar
Harms, P., Kretschmann, M., 2009, Words, Deeds, and Outcomes: A Survey on the Growth Effects of Exchange Rate Regimes, Journal of Economic Surveys, no. 23(1), pp. 139–164.
View in Google Scholar
Hayakawa, K.A., Kimura, F., 2009, The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade in East Asia, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, no. 23, pp. 395–406.
View in Google Scholar
Ihnatov, I., Stoica, O., 2016, Exchange Rate Regimes and External Financial Stability, ECO- NOMIC ANNALS, vol. LXI, no. 209, April–June.
View in Google Scholar
Ilzetzki, E., Reinhart, C.M., Rogoff, K.S., 2008, Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?, Mimeo (University of Maryland and Harvard University).
View in Google Scholar
Jakob, B., 2015, Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Economic Growth, Undergraduate Economic Review, vol. 12, iss. 1, article 11.
View in Google Scholar
Klein, M.W., Shambaugh, J.C., 2010, Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern Era, Cambridge: The MIT Press.
View in Google Scholar
Levy-Yeyati, E., Sturzenegger, F., 2003, To Float or To Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth, The American Economic Review, vol. 93, no. 4, September, pp. 1173–1193.
View in Google Scholar
Lohi, J., 2014, Exchange Rate Regimes and Inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa, Journal of Economics and International Finance, vol. 6 (8), pp. 173–189.
View in Google Scholar
Mundell, R.A., 1962, The Appropriate Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policy for Internal and External Stability, IMF Staff Papers, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 70–79.
View in Google Scholar
Mundell, R.A., 1963, Capital Mobility and Stabilization Policy under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates, The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, vol. 29, no. 4, pp. 475–485.
View in Google Scholar
Petreski, M., 2014, Grooming Classifications: Exchange Rate Regimes and Growth in Transition Economies, Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA), Paper no. 54473.
View in Google Scholar
Ramos-Herrera, M.D.C., Sosvilla-Rivero, S., 2014, Exchange-rate Regimes and Inflation: An empirical Evaluation, Working Papers on International Economics and Finance, DEFI 14–02,
View in Google Scholar
Reinhart, C.M. , Rogoff, K.S., 2004, The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation, The Quarterly Journal Of Economics, vol. 119, no. 1, February, pp. 1–48.
View in Google Scholar
Slavtcheva, D., 2015, Financial Development, Exchange Rate Regimes and Productivity Growth: Theory and evidence, Journal of Macroeconomics 44, pp. 109–123.
View in Google Scholar
Sevestre, P., 2002, Econométrie des Données de Panel, Dunod.
View in Google Scholar
Sokolov, V., Lee, B-J., Mark, N.C., 2011, Linkages between Exchange Rate Policy and Macro- economic Performance, Pacific Economic Review, 16: 4, pp. 395–420.
View in Google Scholar
Terry, R., Toulaboe D., 2013, Exchange Rate Regime: Does it Matter for Inflation?, Journal of Applied Business and Economics, vol. 14 (1), pp. 56–71.
View in Google Scholar
Veyrune, R., 2007, Fixed Exchange Rates and Autonomy of Monetary Policy: The Franc Zone Case, IMF/WP/07/34.
View in Google Scholar
Yamada, H., 2013, Does the Exchange Rate Regime Make a Difference in Inflation Perfor- mance in Developing and Emerging Countries? : The role of Inflation Targeting, Journal of International Money and Finance, no. 32, pp. 968–989.
View in Google Scholar
Téléchargements
Publiée
Numéro
Rubrique
Licence
(c) Copyright Poznań University of Economics and Business 2017
Ce travail est disponible sous la licence Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International .
