Régimes de change et performances économiques en Afrique : Quelles leçons pour les pays de l'UEMOA?
Mots-clés :
régimes de change, inflation, croissance économique, politique monétaire, Afrique, UEMOARésumé
L'objectif de cet article est d'évaluer l'influence du régime de change sur les performances macroéconomiques afin d'en tirer des leçons pour les pays de l'UEMOA où la politique de change fi xe caractérise le régime monétaire. Pour cela, une estimation en données de panel à l'aide de la méthode des moments généralisés (GMM) en système a été adoptée et effectuée sur 32 pays pour évaluer l'impact du régime de change sur les performances macroéconomiques pendant la période 1980-2010. Les résultats montrent que le régime de change fixe est meilleur que les régimes de change flexible et intermédiaire pour maintenir des taux d'inflation faibles et stables grâce à un effet de discipline plutôt qu'à un effet de crédibilité. En outre, la croissance dans les pays en régime de change fi xe est plus faible que celle dans l'ensemble des pays en régime de change plus souple. Spécifiquement, ces pays en régime de change fixe semblent enregistrer des taux de croissance plus faibles que les pays en régime de change intermédiaire. Quant au coefficient associé au régime de change flexible, il est positif et significatif. Il traduit que les pays en régime de change fl exible pourraient avoir des taux de croissance plus élevés que les pays en régime de change intermédiaire. L'implication à tirer pour les pays de l'UEMOA est que la recherche d'un point d'ancrage nominal domestique permettrait le maintien de l'inflation à des niveaux faibles et stables tout en améliorant les performances de croissance.
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