Dette publique et croissance en Europe: le rolé des institutions
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18559/ymjd6924Słowa kluczowe:
Public debt, Economic growth, InstitutionsAbstrakt
Cet article examine l'eff et de la dette publique sur la croissance du PIB par tête en longue période, dans une «Union Européenne élargie» à 32 pays, sur la période 1994-2011. Il s'intéresse plus précisément à la spécifi cation de la relation non linéaire dette publique - croissance: quel y est le rôle joué par les facteurs institutionnels, et celui tenu parla trajectoire de la dette? Les principaux résultats sont: (1) sans prise en compte des variables institutionnelles, un eff et de seuil d'endettement est sensible à partir d'un ratio dette sur PIB compris entre 60% pour les pays hors zone euro et 70% pour les pays de la zone euro; (2) Les eff ets de la trajectoire de la dette apparaissent plus importants que les eff ets du niveau d'endettement; (3) la prise en compte des autres variables institutionnelles comme la qualité des institutions et l'origine légale du droit induit une modifi cation plus importante de la nature de la relation dette - croissance: l'eff et (négatif) de la trajectoire de la dette sur la croissance est amorti parla qualité de la gouvernance publique; (4) cet impact négatif de l'évolution de l'endettement sur la croissance n'est sensible que dans les systèmes juridiques d'origine française et socialiste.
Pobrania
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