Courbe de Laffer de la relation entre la dette publique et la croissance en Afrique : importance de la qualité institutionnelle
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.18559/rielf.2021.2.1Mots-clés :
dette publique, croissance, institutionsRésumé
Plusieurs travaux soutiennent l'idée selon laquelle il existe un niveau d'endettement (point de retournement), au-delà duquel la dette publique commence à réduire la croissance économique. Toutefois, le seuil estimé varie selon les études et donne un aperçu incomplet du niveau d'endettement qui maximise la croissance. Selon l'état de nos connaissances, aucune étude n'a expliqué les causes de cette variation dans le contexte des pays d'Afrique. Cette étude vise à montrer que le seuil de la dette qui maximise la croissance dépend du niveau de la corruption, de la qualité de la démocratie et de l'efficacité du gouvernement. Pour y parvenir, nous avons pris appui sur un échantillon de 45 pays africains, pour la période couvrant 1996-2018. Nos résultats, obtenus par les méthodes d'estimations LSDVC et GMM-SYS suggèrent que les niveaux d'endettement public au-dessus desquels la croissance diminue, varient en fonction de la qualité des institutions. Plus précisément, lorsque la qualité institutionnelle est bonne, l'effet négatif de la dette publique sur la croissance se produit à des taux d'endettement plus élevés.
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