Diversification des exportations et vulnérabilité des économies des pays de l'Afrique subsaharienne : rôle de la dépendance en ressources naturelles
Mots-clés :
diversification des exportations, vulnérabilité économique, dépendance ressource naturelle, effet de seuilRésumé
La diversification des exportations en Afrique est un sujet de grand intérêt, mais son impact sur la vulnérabilité économique n'a pas été suffisamment étudié. À partir d'un modèle de panel dynamique et celui à effets de seuils à transition brut, cet article examine le rôle de la dépendance en ressource naturelle dans la relation entre diversification et vulnérabilité économique au sein d'un échantillon de 22 pays de l'Afrique subsaharienne. Nous considérons comme mesure de la diversification des exportations, l'indice modifié de Finger-Kreinin et la part des exportations de produits manufacturés dans le total des exportations. Nos résultats montrent que, la diversification des exportations est un moyen de réduction substantielle du niveau de vulnérabilité économique auquel sont exposés les économies. Toutefois, son effet sur la réduction du niveau de vulnérabilité économique est efficace pour un niveau de dépendance en ressource naturelle inférieur à 38,7%. Ces résultats impliquent qu'il est nécessaire que ces pays tiennent compte du seuil ainsi identifié dans la réorientation de leur politique de diversification axée sur une stratégie d'intégration continentale.
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