Estimation d’un taux d’inflation optimal pour la croissance économique dans la CEDEAO : Une proposition de révision de la cible d’inflation
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.18559/rielf.2024.2.1925Mots-clés :
cible d’inflation, croissance économique, modèle PTR, CEDEAORésumé
Objectif : L’objectif de ce papier est de déterminer un taux d’inflation optimal et étudier son impact sur la relation inflation-croissance dans la CEDEAO.
Conception/méthodologie/approche : Nous utilisons la technique de modélisation économétrique „Panel Threshold Regression (PTR)” développée par Hansen (1999), ap¬pliquée sur des données de pays de la CEDEAO couvrant la période 1980–2018.
Résultats : Les résultats confirment l’existence d’une relation non linéaire entre l’inflation et la croissance économique. Deux seuils d’inflation apparaissent : le premier situé à 6,6% est robuste aux analyses de sensibilité et le second est à 34,1%. Ainsi, l’effet de l’inflation sur la croissance serait positif pour des taux d’inflation inférieurs à 6,6%, négatif à des niveaux supérieurs à 34,1% et non significatif dans cette fourchette. L’effet de l’inflation sur la croissance s’est avéré très faible dans tous les régimes.
Originalité/valeur : Ce papier s’inscrit dans la lignée des travaux empiriques récents tentant de déterminer une cible d’inflation optimale pour la définition et la mise en oeuvre des politiques monétaire dans la CEDEAO. Ces résultats montrent que la norme actuelle de 5% d’inflation, adoptée dans le cadre du Programme de Coopération monétaire de la CEDEAO, pourrait être révisée à la hausse, vers un niveau proche de 6,6%.
JEL Classification
Panel Data Models • Spatio-temporal Models (C23)
Price Level • Inflation • Deflation (E31)
Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions (F45)
General (O40)
Africa (O55)
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(c) Copyright Abdoulaye Traore, Mamadou Diop, Adama Diaw 2024
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