Préparation estimée et vulnérabilité des pays face à la pandémie de Covid-19: Elaboration et approbation de l'Index global
Mots-clés :
préparation à la pandémie, vulnérabilité, résistance à la pandémie, évaluation des pays, index multidimensionnelRésumé
La pandémie de COVID-19 et ses conséquences socio-économiques ont provoqué une augmentation notable du rôle de l'estimation de la préparation et la vulnérabilité des pays. Cela s'ajoute aux investigations existantes dans le cadre des ont internationales et des classements multidimensionnels, et présente des résultats d'évaluation complexe au niveau national de la préparation et la vulnérabilité face à la pandémie, à partir des index multidimensionnels proposés par les auteurs. L'objectif de cette recherche était d'estimer le niveau de préparation national et la vulnérabilité d'un point de vue complexe. Un index multidimensionnel global a été calculé et utilisé pour donner un classement des pays à partir de cette méthodologie. L'index a permis aux auteurs de conclure qu'il y a une différence importante dans le niveau de préparation face à une pandémie et une disproportion entre certains éléments du système pour chaque pays. L'analyse des données, les sources et les rapports ont souligné le besoin d'étendre la liste des indicateurs pour évaluer le niveau de vulnérabilité. L'opportunité d'utiliser cet index est prouvée par l'analyse corrélative statistique entre les sous-index et le niveau de morbidité et mortalité due au COVID-19. L'index est utilisé pour former des groupes multidimensionnels et le partitionnement de données permet d'estimer les conséquences économiques de la pandémie. Les résultats du partitionnement de données ont permis de former quatre groupes de pays : (1) très vulnérables avec faible niveau de préparation ; (2) vulnérables avec faible niveau de préparation ; (3) vulnérables avec haut niveau de préparation ; (4) peu vulnérables avec haut niveau de préparation. L'analyse comparative des conséquences économiques (changement annuel PIB en 2020-2019 par rapport à PIB en 2019-2017), taux de chômage et changement de l'inflation ont montré des disproportions de l'influence de la pandémie par groupes de pays.
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