Déterminants macroéconomiques et monétaires du chômage dans les pays de l'Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest-Africaine (UEMOA)
Mots-clés :
chômage, déterminants, inflation, modèle ARDL, UEMOARésumé
L'objectif de cet article est de faire ressortir les déterminants macroéconomiques et institutionnels de court et long terme du chômage dans les pays de l'UEMOA. Partant des tests de stationnarité et de co?ntégration en panel, cet article recourt ? un mod?le autorégressif ? retards distribués. Des résultats, il ressort qu'? court terme, le taux d'inflation, le taux de change et la stabilité du gouvernement expliquent le niveau du chômage dans les pays de l'UEMOA. Par ailleurs, ? long terme, le taux de chômage est expliqué par la productivité du travail, le taux d'inflation, les dépenses publiques, la corruption et la responsabilité démocratique. Ces résultats confirment la courbe de Phillips qui prédit une relation négative entre l'inflation et le chômage ? court terme et soutiennent la th?se de Friedman (1968) et Phelps (1968) selon laquelle il n'existe pas d'arbitrage ? long terme entre l'inflation et le chômage.
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