Réexamen de l'hypothèse des dèficits jumeaux dans les pays en développement : cas du Congo
Mots-clés :
déficits jumeaux, déficit budgétaire, déficit externe, dette publique, consolidation budgétaire, seuil de soutenabilité de la dette publique, point d’inflexion du déficit externeRésumé
L'objectif principal de cette recherche est de réexaminer l'hypothèse des déficits jumeaux au Congo en faisant, à la fois, appel à un modèle linéaire et à un modèle à effet de seuil avec la dette publique comme variable de seuil. Les résultats obtenus des deux modèles convergent et confirment l'hypothèse des déficits jumeaux au Congo. A la seule différence, le modèle à effet de seuil a permis de déterminer le seuil de la dette publique de 102,94% à partir duquel le déficit budgétaire fait changer la trajectoire du déficit externe. Ce seuil de la dette publique est largement supérieur au seuil de soutenabilité de la dette publique qui se situe autour de 40%. Cette différence entre les deux seuils de la dette publique a une forte implication en matière de politique économique. Ainsi, pour les niveaux de dette publique inférieurs à 40%, le problème de rééquilibrage du solde extérieur ne se pose pas. Entre 40% et 102,94%, une consolidation budgétaire graduelle est conseillée pour retrouver l'équilibre externe. Au-delà de 102,94%, c'est la thérapie de choc qui devra d'abord être envisagée, par la suite complétée par une consolidation budgétaire graduelle lorsque la dette deviendra inférieure à 102,94%.
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