Analyse empirique de la relation entre la volatilité de l'écart de production et la croissance économique : le cas du Liban
Mots-clés :
cycle de croissance, taux de croissance, volatilité, production potentielle, production effective, instabilités économiques, conflitsRésumé
Cet article analyse l'évolution du cycle de croissance et sa volatilité au Liban pendant la période 1970-2015. D'abord, l'évolution du PIB observé par rapport à son niveau tendanciel est déterminée en tenant compte des dates de rupture coïncidant avec les confl its et les instabilités politiques. Ensuite, une estimation de l'infl uence des confl its sur la volatilité de l'écart de production a lieu afi n d'analyser la relation causale entre cette même volatilité et la croissance. Il s'est avéré que, contrairement à ce qui est suggéré par la littérature, c'est la croissance économique qui explique la volatilité des cycles économiques.
Références
Aghion P., Saint-Paul, G. 1998, On the Virtue of Bad Times: An Analysis of the Interaction between Productivity Growth and Economic Fluctuations, Macroeconomie Dynamics, vol. 2, no. 3, pp. 322–344.
View in Google Scholar
Aizenman, J., Marion, N., 1993, Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth, Review of International Economics, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 145–163.
View in Google Scholar
Bai, J., Perron, P., 2003, Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18, pp. 1–22.
View in Google Scholar
Beaudry, P., Cagalayan, M., Schiantarelli, F., 2001, Monetary Instability, the Predictability of Prices, and the Allocation of Investment: An Empirical Investigation Using U.K Panel data, The American Economic Review, vol. 91, no 3, pp. 648–662.
View in Google Scholar
Caporale, T., Mckiernan, B., 1996, The Relationship between Output Variability and Growth: Evidence from Post War UK Data, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Eco- nomic Society, no 43, pp. 229–36.
View in Google Scholar
Caporale, T., Mckiernan, B., 1998, The Fisher Black Hypothesis. Some Times Series Evidence, Southern Economic Journal 64, pp. 765–771.
View in Google Scholar
Dickey, D., Fuller, W., 1979, Distribution for the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with Unit Root, Journal for the American Statistical Association, 74, no. 366, pp. 427–431.
View in Google Scholar
Ferrara, L., 2008, L’apport des indicateurs de retournement cyclique à l’analyse conjoncturelle, Bulletin de la Banque de France, 171(mars).
View in Google Scholar
Ferrara, L., 2009, Caractérisation et datation des cycles économiques en zone euro, Revue Économique, 60(3), pp. 703–712.
View in Google Scholar
GranSanchezger, C.W.J., 1969, Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods, Econometrica, 37(3), pp. 424-438.
View in Google Scholar
Grier, K.B., Tullock, G., 1989, An Empirical Analysis of Cross-national Economic Growth 1951–80, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 24, no. 2, pp. 259–276.
View in Google Scholar
Ismihan, B., Metin-Ozcan, K., Transel, A., 2003, Macroeconomic Instability, Capital Accumulation and Growth: the Case of Turkey 1963–1999, METU working paper, no. 2.
View in Google Scholar
Kormendi, R.C., Meguire, P., 1985, Macroeconomic Determinants of Growth: Cross Country Evidence, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 141–164.
View in Google Scholar
Lumsdaine, R.L., Papell, D., 1997, Multiple Trend Breaks and the Unit Root Hypothesis, Review of Economics and Statistics, 79, pp. 212–218.
View in Google Scholar
Perron, P., 1989, The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis, Econometrica, vol. 57, no. 6, pp. 1361-1401.
View in Google Scholar
Ramey, G., Ramey, V.A., 1995, Cross-country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth, Americain Economic Review, vol. 85, no 5, pp. 1138–1151.
View in Google Scholar
Sanchez-Robles, B., 1998, Macroeconomic Stability and Economic Growth; the Case of Spain, Applied Economic Letters, vol. 5, pp. 587–591.
View in Google Scholar
Stiroh, K.J., 2006, Volatility Accounting: A Production Perspective on Increased Economic Instability, FRBNW staff reports, no. 25.
View in Google Scholar
UCDP/PRIO (Armed Conflict Dataset Codebook/ Peace Research Institute in Oslo)., (2014). Disponible sur le site : http://www.ucdp.uu.se/gpdatabase/gpcountry.php?id=92®ionSelect=10-Middle_East.
View in Google Scholar
United Nations, Statistic Division,National Account Main Aggregates Database, (2015), http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnIList.asp
View in Google Scholar
Téléchargements
Publiée
Numéro
Rubrique
Licence
(c) Tous droits réservés Poznań University of Economics and Business 2017
Ce travail est disponible sous la licence Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International .
