Analyse empirique de la relation entre la volatilité de l'écart de production et la croissance économique : le cas du Liban
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.18559/rielf.2017.1.10Mots-clés :
cycle de croissance, taux de croissance, volatilité, production potentielle, production effective, instabilités économiques, conflitsRésumé
Cet article analyse l'évolution du cycle de croissance et sa volatilité au Liban pendant la période 1970-2015. D'abord, l'évolution du PIB observé par rapport à son niveau tendanciel est déterminée en tenant compte des dates de rupture coïncidant avec les confl its et les instabilités politiques. Ensuite, une estimation de l'infl uence des confl its sur la volatilité de l'écart de production a lieu afi n d'analyser la relation causale entre cette même volatilité et la croissance. Il s'est avéré que, contrairement à ce qui est suggéré par la littérature, c'est la croissance économique qui explique la volatilité des cycles économiques.
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(c) Copyright Poznań University of Economics and Business 2017
Ce travail est disponible sous la licence Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International .
