Influence de la distance technologique sur le co efficient de la Loi d'Okun
Mots-clés :
taux de chômage, Loi d’Okun, frontière technologique, écart technologique, modèle d’interaction, modèle à seuil, politique macroéconomiqueRésumé
Nous utilisons deux techniques de modélisation complémentaires pour analyser l ' influence de la distance technologique des pays sur la force de la relation entre les fluctuations de court terme de l ' activité et celles du taux de chômage dans la Loi d ' Okun. Il apparait que le coefficient d ' Okun est positivement corrélé avec la distance technologique des pays. Plus la distance technologique d ' un pays par rapport à la frontière mondiale est grande, plus l ' impact des variations de court terme du PIB sur les mouvements conjoncturels du taux de chômage est important. La décomposition de cet impact pour chaque pays de l ' échantillon montre que l ' effet de l ' écart technologique sur corrélation entre les mouvements du PIB réel et de ceux du taux de chômage varie entre les différents pays. Cet effet est par exemple proche de 20% pour le Danemark et la Norvège mais plutôt de l ' ordre de 40% pour la Grèce.
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