Analyse macro-économétrique du chômage dans les pays de l’UEMOA
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.18559/rielf.2024.1.1639Mots-clés :
déterminants macroéconomiques, chômage, UEMOA, DOLSRésumé
L’objectif : cet article vise à évaluer les déterminants macroéconomiques du chômage dans les pays de l’UEMOA, en mettant un accent particulier sur les chocs pluviométriques.
Conception/méthodologie/approche : L’utilisation des données sous régionales requiert de vérifier si les séries temporelles ne sont pas corrélées simultanément. Dans cette optique, nous avons utilisé le test de Breusch-Pagan (1980) pour détecter une possible corrélation des erreurs. Sur la base de ce résultat, nous avons respectivement utilisé le test de racine unitaire de deuxième génération de Pesaran (2007) et le test de cointégration de Westerlund (2007), qui sont robustes à l’interdépendance individuelle. Enfin, nous avons estimé l’équation de long terme du chômage à l’aide de la technique DOLS pour corriger les éventuels problèmes d’endogénéité. Les données utilisées dans la présente étude couvrent la période 1991-2020 et proviennent de différentes sources : World Development Indicators, Worldwide Governance Indicators, et Global Climate Data-Université of Delaware covering.
Résultats : Il ressort de l’analyse empirique que les chocs pluviométriques, l’ouverture commerciale et le contrôle de la corruption exacerbent le chômage, alors que la croissance du PIB contribue à le résorber. En revanche, l'inflation, les TIC et le développement financier se sont révélés non significatifs.
Originalité/valeur : Cet article évalue l’incidence des anomalies pluviométriques sur le chômage, ce qui constitue une première dans la littérature empirique.
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