Investigation empirique des effets non-linéaires de la dette publique sur la croissance économique dans les pays d'Afrique subsaharienne (ASS) dans un contexte de réendettement : cas des pays pauvres très endettes
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.18559/rielf.2022.1.5Mots-clés :
croissance économique, dette publique, seuil optimal, moments généralisés en première différence (FD-GMM)Résumé
Cet article analyse les effets non-linéaires de la dette publique sur la croissance économique dans les pays pauvres très endettés d'Afrique subsaharienne (ASS) dans un contexte de ré-endettement. La méthodologie adoptée repose sur un modèle non-linéaire de panel dynamique à effet de seuil [méthode des moments généralisés en première différence (FD-GMM)]. La période couverte va de 2010 à 2019. Les résultats après estimations révèlent l'existence d'un seuil de 58,21% en dessous duquel le stock de la dette impacte positivement et de façon significative la croissance économique et au-delà de ce seuil, la dette publique impacte négativement et de façon significative la croissance économique. Parallèlement à ce résultat de premier ordre, nous constatons également que les variables comme l'ouverture commerciale et, l'inflation améliorent la croissance économique en dessous du seuil critique de la dette.
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