Consolidation budgetaire : quelles differences entre therapie de choc et ajustement graduel?
Mots-clés :
consolidation budgétaire, macroéconomie, approche narrativeRésumé
Après avoir conduit des politiques budgétaires expansionnistes durant la crise économique, plusieurs pays, confrontés à une montée de l ' endettement public, ont dû mettre en oeuvre des plans de consolidation budgétaire afin de rétablir la soutenabilité de leurs finances publiques. Deux stratégies opposées peuvent être suivies pour atteindre cet objectif. La première approche consiste en une « thérapie de choc » qui répondrait à une urgence financière qui conduirait à une possible faillite. Une seconde approche vise à lisser l ' ajustement budgétaire pour contenir les effets récessifs d ' une telle politique. Dans cet article, nous comparons les effets macroéconomiques de chaque stratégie à partir d ' une base de données identifiant les épisodes de consolidation budgétaires sur une méthode narrative (FMI) plutôt que statistique (déficit budgétaire ajusté du cycle). Nous observons que si les deux types d ' approche présentent des effets similaires sur les variables macroéconomiques étudiées, la thérapie de choc détiendrait des effets sensiblement plus élevés sur la demande privée.
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