Effets des politiques conjoncturelles sur la croissance économique en Zone franc
Mots-clés :
politique conjoncturelle, VAR structurel, croissance économiqueRésumé
Cet article trouve son affiliation dans la théorie budgétaire du niveau des prix. Il propose l'étude simultanée des chocs conjoncturels en Zone franc, à l'aide d'un modèle PVAR structurel regroupant l'activité, les prix, un taux d'intérêt réel de court terme, le solde budgétaire primaire et la dette extérieure. Les effets et les délais de transmission des impulsions budgétaires et monétaires sur le PIB apparaissent différenciés dans les deux unions monétaires à court terme. Les composantes cycliques des taux de refinancement de la BEAC et BCEAO sont positivement liées à celles des déficits primaires dans la Zone franc. Les politiques budgétaires agissent négativement sur la croissance du PIB. Cependant les politiques monétaires produisent des chocs positifs sur l'évolution de la croissance économique dans ces deux Unions monétaires. Il est donc nécessaire que les autorités monétaires allègent les règles de politique monétaire en réduisant les taux d'intérêt, ce qui va également relancer l'activité. Et les gouvernements n'ont alors aucune incitation à accroître leur déficit.
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