Effets de la stratégie de relance post-COVID-19 de la BCEAO sur les agrégats économiques au Togo
Mots-clés :
COVID-19, politique monétaire, relance économique, informalité, DSGE, BCEAORésumé
Les conséquences des mesures barrières anti COVID-19 ont été dommageables sur l'activité économique. Afin de stimuler la relance économique, la BCEAO propose une réduction de 20% de son taux directeur (2,5% à 2%). Notre étude propose une pré-évalua- tion des effets de cette politique monétaire sur les agrégats économiques au Togo. À partir d'un modèle DSGE intégrant les restrictions d'accès au crédit de l'informel, nous analysons les canaux de transmission de la baisse du taux directeur de la BCEAO jusqu'aux agrégats économiques. La réduction de 20% du taux directeur engendrerait une baisse du taux de base des banques commerciales de près de 3%, ce qui stimulera l'investissement pour un effet additionnel de 2% sur la croissance du PIB. Toutefois, la croissance sera essentiellement drai- née par le secteur formel, principal bénéficiaire du crédit additionnel. Le secteur informel en sera même négativement affecté, sous l'hypothèse de la substituabilité des facteurs entre les secteurs d'activité. On note une baisse de 0,9% de l'emploi informel et une réduction de 0,7% de la production informelle. La stratégie de relance de la BCEAO pourrait ainsi permettre aux États de la zone ouest-africaine d'initier un changement structurel pour un meilleur développement autre que celui à forte propension informelle.
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