Agrégats macroéconomiques et fluctuations de l'investissement : l'exemple des pays de l'UEMOA
Mots-clés :
investissement, fluctuation, cycle, UEMOARésumé
Cet article propose une évaluation de l'impact de l'évolution des agrégats macroéconomiques sur l'investissement des pays de l'UEMOA. L'étude s'appuie sur une modélisation structurelle à composantes inobservables susceptible de faire ressortir les liens entre l'investissement et les variables macroéconomiques. Les résultats suggèrent la récurrence des chocs négatifs sur l'investissement. Les agrégats macroéconomiques (PIB, Infl ation, Epargne), exercent ainsi un comportement pro-cyclique sur l'investissement. Par contre, le solde budgétaire est contra-cyclique suivant les phases du cycle de l'investissement. L'investissement productif devrait être une priorité des politiques budgétaires nationales dans les pays membres de l'union pour un développement économique soutenable.
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