Analyse de la soutenabilité de la dette publique fondée sur le concept d’espace budgétaire : cas de la République du Congo
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.18559/rielf.2025.1.2458Mots-clés :
dette publique, limite d’endettement, espace budgétaire, essoufflement budgétaire, soutenabilitéRésumé
Objectif – L’objectif principal de ce papier est d’étudier la soutenabilité de la dette publique de la République du Congo par le biais du concept de « l’espace budgétaire » et de proposer des mesures en termes de politique économique afin de consolider cet espace budgétaire.
Approche – Notre approche de la soutenabilité de la dette publique du Congo par l’espace budgétaire s’inspire du modèle de Ghosh et al (2013). C’est une fonction de réaction non linéaire du solde budgétaire primaire face à l’augmentation de la dette publique. A l’instar de Lozano-Espitia et Julio (2019), la prime de risque est endogène au niveau d’endettement de sorte que le taux d’intérêt augmente avec le niveau croissant de la dette.
Résultats – Les résultats des estimations de la limite d’endettement et de l’espace budgétaire du Congo en 2020 correspondent respectivement à 109% et 10,5% du PIB. Ce qui signifie que les marges de manœuvre du gouvernement congolais sont nettement insuffisantes pour garantir la soutenabilité de sa dette publique à long terme. Les résultats des estimations montrent aussi qu’à 82% du PIB, le niveau de la dette publique du Congo devient préoccupant et que la fonction de réaction budgétaire du gouvernement s’essouffle lorsque sa dette publique atteint 102,6% du PIB.
Originalité – L’originalité de ce travail de recherche vient de ce que la notion de soutenabilité de la dette publique, qui est un concept difficile à appréhender, est ici circonscrite à travers des seuils et des points d’essoufflement de la fonction de réaction.
JEL Classification
Debt • Debt Management • Sovereign Debt (H63)
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