Energy mix and its implicationson the Vietnamese economy by 2030:A CGE analysis using GTAP-E-Power
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2025.1.1896Keywords:
energy mix, renewable energy, CGE model, GTAP-E-power, VietnamAbstract
This study uses the GTAP-E-Power model to examine the economic and environmental implications of transitioning to different energy generation mixes in Vietnam by 2030. Three scenarios were considered for that year: (1) low-coal and high-gas, (2) low-coal and high-renewables, and (3) high-coal. Scenario 2 emerges as the most balanced approach, resulting in a 1.02% GDP decline and a 0.78% increase in CO2 emissions. In this scenario, the electronics sector grows slightly (+0.3%), while metals (-3.1%) and chemical products (-1.0%) experience moderate declines. In terms of exports, Scenario 2 gives rise to an increase in the trade balance (151 million USD) and a modest gain in exports to China (+0.46%), Japan (+0.37%), Korea (+0.33%), and Western Europe (+0.35%). Across all three scenarios, the output of the electronics industry shows sensitivity to energy mix changes, while the coal mining sector seems to be resilient to changing the energy mix.
JEL Classification
Computable General Equilibrium Models (C68)
Agriculture • Natural Resources • Energy • Environment • Other Primary Products (O13)
Energy and the Macroeconomy (Q43)
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Copyright (c) 2025 Duy Chinh Nguyen, Dr. Jong-Hwan Ko
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