An attempt to model the demand for new cars in Poland and its spatial differences
Keywords:car market, socio-economic determinants of demand, spatial perspective, econometric modelling, geographically weighted regression, Poland
AbstractThe article seeks to identify socio-economic conditions that affect the demand of individual consumers for cars and to analyse the spatial differences of those conditions. To achieve this objective use was made of methods and models of spatial econometrics. The analysis conducted embraced all poviats in Poland (the secondlevel unit of the Polish administrative division, equivalent to LAU-1, previously called NUTS-4) and covered the years 2010-2015. The findings show that the primary factor affecting the demand for new cars in Poland, other than the price, was the level of wealth of potential consumers. A complementary role was played by the demographic situation, the level of local development and the level of satisfaction of the needs for a motor vehicle. An in-depth analysis in the form of geographically weighted regression (GWR) showed there to be spatial variations in the conditions identified, which might explain the wide differences in the level of motorisation and the demand for new cars in Poland.
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