Déterminants du risque d’incertitude en Afrique subsaharienne
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.18559/rielf.2025.1.2244Mots-clés :
incertitude, Afrique subsaharienne, coups d'état, corruption, stabilité politiqueRésumé
Objectif : Cet article examine les facteurs qui contribuent au risque d’incertitude dans 26 pays de l’Afrique subsaharienne.
Conception/méthodologie/approche : Nous utilisons un modèle probit dichotomique estimé par la technique du maximum de vraisemblance pour des données de panel sur la période entre 2003 à 2020.
Résultats : Les résultats montrent que les coups d’état, la Covid-19, les mesures répressives, les mouvements antisystèmes, la corruption du régime, l’ouverture du pays, et l’exclusion politique accroissement le risque d’incertitude. En revanche, la stabilité politique et absence de violence et les dépenses militaires réduisent le risque d’incertitude. Les pays de l’Afrique australe et orientale sont plus exposés au risque par rapport à ceux de l’Afrique occidentale. L’étude révèle aussi une forte corrélation spatiale de risque d’incertitude entre les pays de la sous-région. Les autorités doivent prendre des mesures pour réduire les facteurs d’incertitude afin d’éviter le phénomène de répétition.
Originalité/valeur : L’originalité de cet article réside dans sa capacité à répondre à une problématique d’une grande pertinence face à la recrudescence des crises d’incertitude en Afrique subsaharienne. En mettant en évidence les déterminants spécifiques de ce risque dans un contexte marqué par une instabilité politique accrue, des crises sanitaires mondiales et des tensions institutionnelles, il contribue de manière significative à la compréhension et à l’atténuation des risques d’incertitude en Afrique subsaharienne.
JEL Classification
Crisis Management (H12)
Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development (O11)
Public Economics (P35)
Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes (R11)
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