Determinants of uncertainty risk in sub-Saharan Africa
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18559/rielf.2025.1.2244Keywords:
uncertainty, Sub-Saharan Africa, corruption, political stabilityAbstract
Purpose: This article examines the factors contributing to the risk of uncertainty in 26 sub-Saharan African countries.
Design/methodology/approach: We use a dichotomous probit model estimated by the maximum likelihood technique for panel data over the period from 2003 to 2020.
Findings: The results show that coups d'état, Covid-19, repressive measures, anti-system movements, regime corruption, country openness and political exclusion increase the risk of uncertainty. On the other hand, political stability, absence of violence and military spending reduce the risk of uncertainty. Large countries are less exposed to risk than small ones. Countries in Southern and East Africa are more exposed to risk than those in West Africa. The study also reveals a strong spatial correlation of uncertainty risk between countries in the sub-region. Authorities need to take steps to reduce uncertainty factors in order to avoid repetition.
Originality: The originality of this article lies in its ability to address a highly relevant issue in light of the increasing frequency of uncertainty crises in sub-Saharan Africa. By highlighting the specific determinants of this risk in a context marked by heightened political instability, global health crises, and institutional tensions, it makes a significant contribution to understanding and mitigating uncertainty risks in sub-Saharan Africa.
JEL Classification
Crisis Management (H12)
Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development (O11)
Public Economics (P35)
Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes (R11)
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