Corruption et instabilité de la loi de Wagner : une approche par les ruptures structurelles des dépenses militaires dans les pays du G5-Sahel
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.18559/rielf.2025.1.2444Mots-clés :
revenu national, loi de Wagner, corruption, rupture structurelle multiple, dépenses militairesRésumé
Objectif : Cette recherche analyse la relation entre les dépenses militaires et le revenu national dans l’objectif de tester la loi de Wagner pour les pays du G5 Sahel sur la période 1984 à 2018. Aussi, il est pris en compte l’effet de la corruption sur la stabilité de cette loi.
Conception/méthodologie/approche : Pour atteindre ces objectifs, le modèle de Peacock et Wiseman (1961) est utilisé et estimé par la méthode des ruptures structurelles multiples de Bai et Perron (2003).
Résultats : Les résultats montrent que cette loi est confirmée pour l’ensemble des pays du G5 sahel avec une variabilité selon différents régimes temporels. Cependant, le secteur de la défense qui était un bien public supérieur devient un bien inférieur, à cause de la corruption. Ainsi, la gouvernance vertueuse dans le secteur de la défense doit être une priorité pour les pays du G5 Sahel, afin d’affecter de manière optimale et efficiente des ressources nationales.
Originalité/valeur : L’une des premières contributions de cette recherche est l’application de la loi de Wagner sur les dépenses militaires. En effet, très peu d’études analysent cette loi dans le secteur africain de la défense. La seconde contribution est la prise en compte de la corruption dans la relation entre PIB et dépenses militaires. L'efficacité et la gestion vertueuse des dépenses militaires demeurent l'une des conditions de la réussite de la lutte contre le terrorisme dans le Sahel.
JEL Classification
Time-Series Models • Dynamic Quantile Regressions • Dynamic Treatment Effect Models • Diffusion Processes • State Space Models (C32)
Bureaucracy • Administrative Processes in Public Organizations • Corruption (D73)
Fiscal Policy • Modern Monetary Theory (E62)
National Security and War (H56)
Africa (O55)
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(c) Copyright Mohamed Tidjane Kinda 2025
Ce travail est disponible sous licence Creative Commons Attribution - Pas d’Utilisation Commerciale - Partage dans les Mêmes Conditions 4.0 International.
