The effect of output on employment in Poland during the COVID-19 pandemic
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2024.3.1490Keywords:
COVID-19, employment, employment elasticity, Okun's lawAbstract
The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant decline in output, as well as economic policies aimed at mitigating the negative effects of the pandemic. Both of these factors had an impact on the labour market. This paper investigates changes in employment across groups of workers during the coronavirus pandemic in Poland and the effect of output on these changes. Firstly, it examines changes in employment growth rates across different groups of workers in 2020. Secondly, the paper analyses the impact of the coronavirus crisis on employment by comparing actual and predicted employment growth during the pandemic period (2020). Using Okun’s law, Ordinary Least Squares, and quarterly data, the elasticities of employment growth with respect to GDP growth in the pre-pandemic period (2003–2019) are calculated. These elasticities are then used to estimate projected employment growth during the pandemic. The results suggest that the total employment response to output change was relatively small, compared to the historical pattern. However, the response was unequal across groups of workers. The youngest workers, particularly women, and those with temporary employment contracts were most affected by the pandemic.
Downloads
References
1. Aiyar, S., & Dao, M. C. (2021). The effectiveness of job-retention schemes: COVID-19 evidence from the German states. IMF Working Papers, 242. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513596174.001
View in Google Scholar
2. Alipour, J. V., Fadinger, H., & Schymik, J. (2020). My home is my castle – the benefits of working from home during a pandemic crisis: Evidence from Germany. Ifo Working Papers, 329. https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_178
View in Google Scholar
3. Ambroziak, A. A. (2022). Forms of COVID-19 state aid by beneficiary size in Poland in 2020. International Journal of Management and Economics, 58(1), 44–63. https://doi.org/10.2478/ijme-2022-0003
View in Google Scholar
4. Auer, D. (2022). Firing discrimination: Selective labor market responses of firms during the COVID-19 economic crisis. PLoS ONE, 17(1), 0262337. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262337
View in Google Scholar
5. Ball, L., Leigh, D., & Loungani, P. (2017). Okun’s Law: Fit at 50? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 49(7), 1413–1441. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12420
View in Google Scholar
6. Basu, D., & Foley, D. K. (2013). Dynamics of output and employment in the US economy. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 37(3), 1077–1106.
View in Google Scholar
7. Beland, L. P., Fakorede, O., & Mikola, D. (2020). Short-term effect of COVID-19 on self-employed workers in Canada. Canadian Public Policy, 46(1), 66–81. https://doi.org/10.3138/CPP.2020-076
View in Google Scholar
8. Cazes, S., Verick, S., & Al Hussami, F. (2013). Why did unemployment respond so differently to the global financial crisis across countries? Insights from Okun’s Law. IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 2(10), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1186/2193-9004-2-10
View in Google Scholar
9. Chinn, M., Ferrara, L., & Mignon, V. (2014). Explaining US employment growth after the great recession: The role of output–employment non-linearities. Journal of Macroeconomics, 42, 118–129. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.07.003
View in Google Scholar
10. Ciżkowicz, P., & Rzońca, A. (2003). Uwagi do artykułu Eugeniusza Kwiatkowskiego, Leszka Kucharskiego i Tomasza Tokarskiego, pt. Bezrobocie i zatrudnienie a PKB w Polsce w latach 1993–2001. Ekonomista, 5, 675–699.
View in Google Scholar
11. Czyżewski, A. B. (2002). Wzrost gospodarczy a popyt na pracę. Bank i Kredyt, 33(11– 12), 123–133.
View in Google Scholar
12. D’Apice, P. (2014). The Slovak labour market in the wake of the crisis: Did Okun’s law hold ? ECFIN Country Focus, 11(4), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.2765/69210
View in Google Scholar
13. Dębkowska, K., Kłosiewicz-Górecka, U., Szymańska, A., Ważniewski, P., & Zybertowicz, K. (2021). Tarcza antykryzysowa… Koło ratunkowe dla firm i gospodarki? Polski Instytut Ekonomiczny.
View in Google Scholar
14. Dingel, J. I., & Neiman, B. (2020). How many jobs can be done at home? Journal of Public Economics, 189, 104235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104235
View in Google Scholar
15. Döpke, J. (2001). The “employment intensity” of growth in Europe. Kiel Working Paper, 1021. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/17746/1/kap1021.pdf
View in Google Scholar
16. Dral, A. (2016). Zatrudnienie na podstawie umów terminowych w świetle nowelizacji kodeksu pracy z dnia 25 czerwca 2015 roku. Studia z Zakresu Prawa Pracy i Polityki Społecznej, 23(4), 21–37. https://ejournals.eu/czasopismo/szppips/artykul/zatrud-
View in Google Scholar
nienie-na-podstawie-umow-terminowych-w-swietle-nowelizacji-kodeksu-pracy-z-dnia-25-czerwca-2015-r
View in Google Scholar
17. Dunsch, S. (2016). Okun’s law and youth unemployment in Germany and Poland. International Journal of Management and Economics, 49(1). https://doi.org/10.1515/ijme-2016-0003
View in Google Scholar
18. Eurofound. (2021). COVID-19: Implications for employment and working life. COVID-19 series. Publications Office of the European Union.
View in Google Scholar
19. Eurofound. (2022). Recovery from COVID-19: The changing structure of employment in the EU. Publications Office of the European Union.
View in Google Scholar
20. Gallacher, G., & Hossain, I. (2020). Remote work and employment dynamics under COVID-19: Evidence from Canada. Canadian Public Policy, 46(1), 44–54. https://doi.org/10.3138/CPP.2020-026
View in Google Scholar
21. García-Pérez, J. I., & Villar, A. (2020). Non-working workers. The unequal impact of COVID-19 on the Spanish labour market. Estudios Sobre La Economía Española, 43, 1–24. https://documentos.fedea.net/pubs/eee/eee2020-43.pdf
View in Google Scholar
22. Gaudecker, H. M., Holler, R., Janys, L., Siflinger, B., & Zimpelmann, C. (2021). Labour supply in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic: Empirical evidence on hours, home office, and expectations. IZA Discussion Papers, 13158. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3579251
View in Google Scholar
23. Hutengs, O., & Stadtmann, G. (2014). Don’t trust anybody over 30: Youth unemployment and Okun’s law in CEE countries. Bank i Kredyt, 45(1), 1–16.
View in Google Scholar
24. IMF. (2010, April). World economic outlook: Rebalancing growth (chapter 3). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781589069152.081
View in Google Scholar
25. IMF. (2022). European labor markets and the COVID-19 pandemic. Fallout and the path ahead. IMF Departmental Paper, DP/2022/004, 1–86.
View in Google Scholar
26. Jadamus-Hacura, M., & Melich-Iwanek, K. (2014). Bezzatrudnieniowy wzrost gospodarczy – przykład Polski. Studia Ekonomiczne Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Katowicach, 203, 79–90.
View in Google Scholar
27. Kukołowicz, P. (2021). Rynek pracy w czasie pandemii. Working Paper Polski Instytut Ekonomiczny, 2. https://pie.net.pl/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/PIE_Rynek-Pracy-w-pandemii.pdf
View in Google Scholar
28. Kwiatkowski, E., & Szymańska, A. (2022). Sectoral changes of employment in Poland during the COVID-19 pandemic: Are reallocation shock effects applicable? Economics and Business Review, 8(22), 113–144. https://doi.org/10.18559/ebr.2022.2.7
View in Google Scholar
29. Lee S. Y., Park, M., & Shin, Y. (2021). Hit harder, recover slower? Unequal employment effects of the COVID-19 shock. NBER Working Paper, 28354. https://www.nber.org/papers/w28354
View in Google Scholar
30. Lemieux, T., Milligan, K., Schirle, T., & Skuterud, M. (2020). Initial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Canadian labour market. Canadian Public Policy, 46(1), 55–65. https://doi.org/10.3138/CPP.2020-049
View in Google Scholar
31. Maj, J., & Kubiciel-Lodzińska, S. (2022). COVID-19 pandemic and the situation of immigrants in enterprises. Central European Economic Journal, 9(56), 178–190. https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2022-0011
View in Google Scholar
32. Meriküll, J., & Paulus, A. (2023). The impact of the COVID-19 job retention support on employment. Economics Letters, 222, 110963. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econ-let.2022.110963
View in Google Scholar
33. Muster, R. (2022). Pandemia COVID-19 a zmiana modelu pracy. Polska na tle krajów Unii Europejskiej. Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Sociologica, 81, 29–44. https://doi.org/10.18778/0208-600x.81.02
View in Google Scholar
34. Nunes, C., Carvalho, B. P., Pereira dos Santos, J., Peralta, S., & Tavares, J. (2023). Failing young and temporary workers: The impact of a disruptive crisis on a dual labour market. The B. E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 23(2), 349–395. https://doi.org/10.1515/bejeap-2022-0316
View in Google Scholar
35. OECD. (2020, October). Job retention schemes during the COVID-19 lockdown and beyond. OECD Policy Responses to Coronavirus (COVID-19) Papers, 1–23. https://doi.org/10.1787/0853ba1d-en
View in Google Scholar
36. Okun, A. M. (1962). Potential GNP: Its measurement and significance. Cowles Foundation Paper, 190. Cowles Foundation, Yale University: New Haven, CT, USA.
View in Google Scholar
37. Osuna, V., & García Pérez, J. I. (2021). Temporary layoffs, short-time work and COVID-19: The case of a dual labour market. Applied Economic Analysis, 30(90), 248–262. https://doi.org/10.1108/AEA-06-2021-0118
View in Google Scholar
38. Paluszkiewicz, M. (2017). Zatrudnienie tymczasowe po nowelizacji. Praca i Zabezpieczenie Społeczne, 11, 22–29. https://www.pwe.com.pl/czasopisma/praca-i-zabezpieczenie-spoleczne/numery-czasopisma/praca-i-zabezpieczenie-spoleczne-nr-112017,p537180507
View in Google Scholar
39. Radziukiewicz, M. (2021). Remote work in Poland and its perspectives. Economic and Regional Studies / Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne, 14(4), 409–427. https://doi.org/10.2478/ers-2021-0029
View in Google Scholar
40. Russnak, J., Stadtmann, G., & Zimmermann, L. (2023). Does Okun’s law suffer from COVID-19? Evidence from Europe and the US—a research note. Economics and Business Letters, 12(2), 165–171. https://doi.org/10.17811/ebl.12.2.2023.165-171
View in Google Scholar
41. Sögner, L., & Stiassny, A. (2002). An analysis on the structural stability of Okun’s law—a cross-country study. Applied Economics, 34(14), 1775–1787. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840210124180
View in Google Scholar
42. Statistics Poland. (2020). Informacja Głównego Urzędu Statystycznego na temat zmian wprowadzanych od 2021 r. w Badaniu Aktywności Ekonomicznej Ludności. https://stat.gov.pl/obszary-tematyczne/rynek-pracy/pracujacy-bezrobotni-bierni-zawodo-wo-wg-bael/informacja-glownego-urzedu-statystycznego-na-temat-zmian-wpro-wadzanych-od-2021-r-w-bael,35,1.html
View in Google Scholar
43. Statistics Poland. (2022). Informacja na temat przeliczonych dla lat 2010–2020 wyników Badania Aktywności Ekonomicznej Ludności (BAEL) z 26.01.2022. https://stat.gov.pl/obszary-tematyczne/rynek-pracy/pracujacy-bezrobotni-bierni-zawo-dowo-wg-bael/informacja-na-temat-przeliczonych-dla-lat-2010-2020-wynikow-badania-aktywnosci-ekonomicznej-ludnosci-bael,37,1.html
View in Google Scholar
44. Strzelecki, P. (2020, lipiec). Imigranci w polskiej gospodarce – raport z badań ankietowych. NBP, Departament Statystyki, 1–22. https://nbp.pl/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/imigranci-vii2020.pdf
View in Google Scholar
45. Zanin, L. (2014). On Okun’s law in OECD countries: An analysis by age cohorts. Economics Letters, 125(2), 243–248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2014.08.030
View in Google Scholar
Downloads
Published
Versions
- 2024-10-03 (3)
- 2024-09-27 (2)
- 2024-09-26 (1)
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Krzysztof Bartosik
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
